Bribes Of Cash And Guns To Tackle IS Jihadis
Updated: 5:03pm UK, Tuesday 09 September 2014
By Sam Kiley, Foreign Affairs Editor
Washington is on the move.
From dither to decision to deliberation and even direction, it's been a frustrating process to behold.
But it may, in the end, provide a map through the minefield of the Middle East that is at least navigable.
Past failures are no excuse for inaction.
The disaster of the invasion of Iraq, and the debacle of Afghanistan, have meant that Western public opinion is not disposed for more adventures in the Muslim world.
Politicians have taken refuge from addressing whether Islamic State is the threat they claim it is using the backward argument that there's no public support for action.
Now Barack Obama has been briefing his nation via the media, Congress, and in a landmark speech, of the need to take action to stop the IS spread.
His Secretary of State John Kerry is simultaneously en route to the Middle East with a very simple message: "The IS is a much bigger threat to you all than it is to us - so you'll be expected to do the heavy lifting here."
That doesn't just mean 'boots on the ground'.
Of course the US will be looking at a Yemen or Libyan-type operation in which local or regional forces provide troops, while allies do the bombing from a safe height.
But the campaign against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been slow and is far from over - mainly because while AQAP has lost many leaders it has not lost the political struggle.
Similarly, Mr Kerry's trip to Saudi Arabia, where he will meet with his hosts, Jordan, Egypt, the Lebanon and six Gulf states, will focus on the military option and a much more complex political strategy to undermine IS in the Sunni world.
Jordan is ahead of the game on this, having organised a regional gathering of Sunni tribal leaders a few weeks back.
Key will be the role of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which have been rivals for Sunni dominance.
Qatar has favoured the radical non-violence of the Muslim Brotherhood, while all other regional powers and the Gulf States see the Brotherhood as a threat to their autocracies.
This need not get in the way, though, of reaching out to Sunni tribal leaders in Syria and Iraq to persuade them their future lies not with trying to win power on the back of IS and then turning against it.
Rather that it lies in turning against IS now and quickly ending an even more drawn out conflict.
They will need bribing with money and guns - which Arab states will be expected to come up with.
There are signs that IS is already vulnerable.
Former members of Saddam Hussein's armed forces who are inside IS are already showing signs they want more power, according to intelligence sources.
Meanwhile, the IS leadership for much of Iraq has been switched to Syria, and vice versa, to offset frictions between rival groups.
And inside Syria, sources say, several IS 'emirs' have clashed with local tribal chieftains who despise all outside attempts to rule over them, but would welcome support from fellow Arab Sunni governments.
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